000
AGXX40 KNHC 081820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT THU OCT 08 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES NEAR 28N85W HAS A RIDGE W TO TX/LA COAST AND HAS 
PUSHED THE FRONT N OF AREA THIS MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW AT 
15-20 KT W OF 89W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TILL NEXT COLD FRONT 
ARRIVES ALONG TX COAST AROUND SUNSET FRI. THE FRONT STALLS FROM 
S-CENTRAL LA TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT NIGHT...THEN 
MEANDERS...OR DRIFTS W THROUGH SUN. BY THEN...THE NORTHERN 
EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
AS THE WAVE MOVES W OF AREA MON A REINFORCING NLY SURGE WILL 
PUSH THE FRONT E AGAIN...REACHING THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS TUE 
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT REACHES FROM FL BIG BEND TO 
THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE.   

REMAINDER AREA...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 31N68W TO NE FL WILL CONTINUE E OVER 
ATLC WATERS E OF 70W WHILE STALLING OVER THE NW WATERS BY EARLY 
TONIGHT. THE W SEGMENT WILL LIFT NE FRI AS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FRONT BETWEEN 70W AND 65W WASHES OUT. THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE 
STRONG BETWEEN 65W AND 55W AND REACHES ALONG 25N BEFORE 
DISSIPATING. NLY SWELLS 8 TO 12 FT WILL PUSH S OVER THE WATERS E 
OF 72W EARLY FRI BEHIND FRONT WITH THE N SWELL SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 
8 FT AND REACHING ALONG 22N AROUND SUNRISE SUN. SW WINDS AHEAD 
OF FRONT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE AREA E OF 72W INTO 
TONIGHT. WINDS CLOCK QUICKLY TO N-NE N OF FRONT AND CONTINUE TO 
CLOCK TO THE S JUST E OF NE FL ON FRI. AN E TO W RIDGE SETS 
ALONG 28N-29N SAT THROUGH SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LGT AND 
VARIABLE WITH SUBSIDING N SWELL. THE RIDGE SHIFTS N OF AREA 
BRIEFLY MON BEFORE RETURNING ALONG 28N TUE. NEXT FRONT OFF GA 
COAST TUE NIGHT.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL 
ATLC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES 
EARLY TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO MOVE W ALONG 20N FRI FURTHER 
WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH E CUBA AROUND 
MON. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S OF 15N ALONG 56W HAS BECOME 
CONVECTIVE THIS MORNING WITH CYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED ON 
10N57.5W ATTM. GRADIENT E OF WAVE SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF 
20-25 KT. WAVE SEEMS TO DAMPEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE 
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND REACHING ALONG 70W SAT...AND 82W MON.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 74W SHOULD REACH 
GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI NIGHT.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON