000 AGXX40 KNHC 071841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009 ABOVE THE SURFACE... IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH FROM NEAR 27N55W TO THE EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO ALONG 20N THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT TO THE EAST OF 60W. OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT STILL COVER THE AREA. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 25N WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF SUNDAY AND OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY. SURFACE... FOR THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH 25 IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN. BY FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AREA INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI. MORE NORMAL 20 KNOT TRADES WILL SPREAD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TRADES NORTH OF 15N WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS FORECAST AND SOUTH OF 15N MORE NORMAL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY AND DIMINISH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO NEAR 25N95W THEN SOUTH TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY AND STALL. EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND REACH FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN MEXICO LATE MONDAY. NE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE NW OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA NORTH OF 30N TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE TODAY. CONTINUING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KT NORTH OF 27N TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THESE WINDS WILL BE EAST OF THE OFFSHORE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY REACH 20 KNOTS NORTH OF 30N. RIDGE BUILD ALONG 31N BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ087. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER LL