000 AGXX40 KNHC 061840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009 ABOVE THE SURFACE... IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N50W TO THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUING TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NORTHEAST OF THE ANTILLES AND BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARA FROM THE NORTH BUT TO THE EAST OF 60W. IN THE CARIBBEAN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND PASS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THURSDAY THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL CONTRACT SOME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 25N WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF SUNDAY. SURFACE... FOR THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH 25 IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BY FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AREA INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST....HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE NAY BE FORMING. MORE NORMAL 20 KNOT TRADES WILL SPREAD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TRADES IN THIS AREA WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY AND DIMINISH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE LATE SATURDAY AND STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE SUNDAY. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA NORTH OF 30N WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KT NORTH OF 27N WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THESE WINDS WILL BE EAST OF THE OFFSHORE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY REACH 20 KNOTS NORTH OF 30N. RIDGE BUILD ALONG 31N BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER LL