000 AGXX40 KNHC 030729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF ENDED UP BEING LESS POTENT THAN THE MODELS YESTERDAY WERE SHOWING. MODELS AGREE NOW ON KEEPING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SHIFT IT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUN. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TX BY SUN AND WILL ANCHOR THIS FRONT N OF FORECAST WATERS. HIGH PRES BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN/MON...BUT THEY STILL ALL AGREE ON BUILDING WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A MEAN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGHING N OF FORECAST WATERS E OF 55W BETWEEN 25N AND 28N. THIS MEAN TROUGH HAS A SURFACE LOW REELECTION FROM 22N51W TO 13N55W WITH A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER ALONG THE TROUGH AT 17N54W. THE PRESENCE OF THIS MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE LOWER LEVEL TROPICAL WAVE LOCATIONS IN THIS REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONVECTION MAY BE MORE DRIVEN OR INHIBITED BY THE TROUGHING. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W S OF 15N WILL MOVE INTO THE MEAN INVERTED TROUGH REGION BY MON AND THEN PASS S OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE/WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W S OF 13N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY TUE. AS THE INVERTED MEAN TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL PASS E TO THE N OF IT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS. BEFORE THIS TIME...LOOK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FARTHER W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING OFF THE E COAST AND SW N ATLC ZONE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W MAKES ITS WAY W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC... THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING OFF THE E COAST. THEY NO LONGER SHOW A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR JUST N OF FORECAST WATERS LATER TODAY. INSTEAD...THERE IS AGREEMENT ON MORE SLOWLY TURNING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NEGATIVE TILT TILL SUN WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS MORE EASTERLY LOW TRACK TODAY WHICH DRAGS THE FRONT E FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER CONSENSUS. WEAK HIGH PRES SHIFTS W INTO NE WATERS LATE MON/TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES NE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK