000 AGXX40 KNHC 020708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND ALLOW IT TO SHIFT E TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS MOVING THE LOW E AND IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW THAN THE SIMILARLY TIMED ECMWF. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE LOW...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE W LOW CIRCULATION LIKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 26N WHILE IN THE GULF BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO THE COAST BY LATE SAT. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TX BY SUN AND WILL ANCHOR THIS WARM FRONT. THE MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY WITH THE TIMING AT WHICH THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE NW GULF SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A MEAN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO RELOAD AND REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 53W AND 38W IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 40 KT WESTERLY JET ALONG 16N. THE PRESENCE OF THIS MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE LOWER LEVEL TROPICAL WAVE LOCATIONS IN THIS REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONVECTION MAY BE MORE DRIVEN OR INHIBITED BY THE TROUGHING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED ON SUN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE INVERTED MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY SHIFT W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL SHIFT TO THE N OF IT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN TRADES. SW N ATLC... CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRONG SURFACE LOW THE CMC DEVELOPS OVER N WATERS SAT NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS A FRIEND IN THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSING OFF THE E COAST SAT NIGHT/SUN COMPARED TO THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SHOW MORE SIMILARITY TO THE ECMWF WHICH DELAYS ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS CARRYING THE COLD FRONT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...SO A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRES SHIFTS W INTO NE WATERS LATE MON/TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES NE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK