000
AGXX40 KNHC 281832
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE 
EASTERN GULF TO AROUND 85W. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER 
THE SE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE 
STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...AND BE OVERTAKEN BY A 
REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SE UNITED 
STATES...STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 
THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY THU. THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH 
FRI AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM S FLORIDA TO TEXAS. ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME...ALLOWING 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TO INCREASE TO 
AROUND 20 KT FRI INTO SAT. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY BUOY REPORTS AND SCATTEROMETER 
DATA. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 15Z INDICATED 20 KT WINDS AS FAR 
EAST AS 68W. WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WATERS 
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 10 TO 
15 KT TO AROUND 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK 
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE STRONG 
PERSISTENT E FLOW OVER THE WIDTH OF THE BASIN WILL ALLOW E SWELL 
TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN TO 11 FT 
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SW ATLC WATERS S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL 
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL 
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUE...REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N73W TO E 
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TUE. N OF 28N...SW WINDS TO THE EAST OF 
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER INTO EARLY WED. THE FRONT 
WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM 31N67W TO THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS THU. HIGH PRES REBUILD N ACROSS 27N FRI AND 
SAT...ALLOWING FRESH TRADES OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N.

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN