000
AGXX40 KNHC 261836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT E TO 
SE FLOW SO FAR TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES A 12Z 
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE AREA SHOWING GENERALLY THE SAME THING. 
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SW GULF IS LIKELY RELATED TO A 
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DUE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH 
GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOWER PRES TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS 
EAST. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE JUST ALONG 
THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT AS 
IT SHIFTS W ONSHORE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FRUSTRATING THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF 
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS INTO THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL STALL SUN AND DISSIPATE AS 
IT SHIFTS EAST SUN NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SECOND 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...AND ENTER THE NORTHERN 
GULF WATERS BY MONDAY. AS THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS FRONT WILL BE 
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THE FRONT WILL OVER THE NE 
GULF WATERS TUE...THEN STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO SE 
TEXAS...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE ON THU.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST OVER S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONG BREEZES ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 
8 FT.  HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF AREA IN CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD SUN 
THROUGH WED INCREASING WINDS OVER ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL 
ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. TROPICAL WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO EXPECTED TO 
MAINTAIN GUST CONDITIONS S OF 15N FROM 68W-75W THROUGH LATE SUN.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 23N71W WILL SHIFT SE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES S TO 29N E OF 70W SUN BEFORE STALLING 
ALONG 28N.  EXPECT FRESH NE BREEZE BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN 
DIMINISHING BY SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 24N SUN INTO 
MON AS DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH EASTERN CONUS.  GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS OVER WATERS N OF 28N AS COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF CAROLINA 
COAST LATE TUE AND PUSHES INTO WATERS OFF N FLORIDA AND N OF 
BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  FRONT REACH FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA BY LATE WED. 

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN