000 AGXX40 KNHC 241850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTHWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 96W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020 OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTS CONFIRMS FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WEST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ARE CURRENTLY ONLY IN UPPER 60S...INDICATING THIS IS FIRST BOUT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE COLD AIR ALONG WITH FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO S OF VERACRUZ INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WINDS TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST. A TROUGH IS MOVING WEST THROUGH YUCATAN S OF 23N INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING LIGHT OT MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE BASIN...WITH SCATTEROMETER INDICATING WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG COLOMBIA. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRADE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED AROUND 55W AND WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS ALOFT...AND MODELS SHOW THIS DAMPENING OUT SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST. THUS NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK TROUGH IS MIGRATING WEST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...TIED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL WASH OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SAT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY...BUT DIMINISH AS THE FRONT STALLS AND SHIFTS EAST. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SAT INTO SUN. WINDS OFF N FLORIDA INCREASE BY LATE SUN AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 25N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN