000 AGXX40 KNHC 240641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONT HAS STALLED FROM S CENTRAL LA TO THE S CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TC FRED...MOVED W JUST INLAND SE GA AND OVER FL ALONG ABOUT 81W-82W AT 00Z...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED W OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRED REMNANT TROUGH RACED W AND HAS BECOME A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AS FORECAST. THE NE GULF TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE BROAD AND INFLUENCED BY BOTH E AND W COAST FL DAILY SEAS BREEZES AND LIKELY MEANDER OVER N FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS AS IT LIFTS BACK N OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. CURRENT GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG ABOUT A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THEN BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF SHIFTS W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IT WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE STALLED FRONT. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK LOW PRES AROUND SUNRISE FRI...AND FORECAST THIS LOW TO MEANDER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN DISSIPATING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST W OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT SURGES THROUGH FRI THEN THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS SHIFTS TO EXTREME SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER S CENTRAL GULF AS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AROUND SUNSET SAT. SW N ATLC... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TC FRED...MOVED W OF AREA AND JUST INLAND SE GA AND OVER FL ALONG 81W-82W LATE WED...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED JUST W OF N FL. EXPECTING THIS TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK E AGAIN AND MEANDER OVER THE N FL AND EXTREME NW ATLC AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH... UNDER A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE...IS MOVING NW OVER THE WATERS S OF BERMUDA AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS AROUND SUNSET FRI. THE FRONT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BRIDGES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SAT...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL. EXPECTING N WINDS AT 20 KT TO REACH ALONG 31N BETWEEN 72W AND 72W AROUND SUNRISE SAT...BUT QUICKLY CLOCK TO NE AND E BY LATE SAT. NWW3 NOW ONLY ADVECTING SWELLS TO ABOUT 7 FT...COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT...OVER THE NE WATERS E OF 70W. WINDS CLOCK QUICKLY TO S OVER THE NW WATERS LATE SAT...BECOMING SW SUN WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING SE GA COAST MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FORMALLY TC FRED HAS MOVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER GUATEMALA IA MAINTAINING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THAT WAS SET OFF BY A UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUE NIGHT. A SWATCH OF AT LEAST 20 KT ELY TRADES IS NOTED E OF 83W AND THAT SURGE IN WINDS SHOULD SPREAD W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY RELAXING SOME TO THE W OF 82W BY LATE FRI...BUT GENERALLY CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WITH SURFACE TROUGHS POPPING UP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THE ONLY TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ALONG 50W ATTM...EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 55W LATE TODAY...62W LATE FRI...AND REACH ALONG 80W LATE MON. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER NELSON