000 AGXX40 KNHC 231852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS FROM ABOUT MORGAN CITY LA TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG 25N. UPPER SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO DRAG THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT E ALONG THE N GULF COAST...WHILE THE SRN PORTION DIVES S INTO THE FAR SW GULF...WITH NLY FLOW OF 20 KT AND POCKETS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND W OF 96W. THE N PORTIONS WILL THEN MEANDER OVER THE N AND W PORTIONS AND IT IS POSSIBLE A FRONTAL WAVE/LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 28N WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOWING 20 KT. ELY FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS PRODUCING MODEST SEAS...BUT WERE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO N OF THE YUCATAN... GENERATING SEAS 5 FT. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE FRONT PROGRESSES AND THEN STALLS. SW N ATLC... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...REMINDERS OF FRED...WAS ALONG THE FL E COAST TO THE COASTAL ZONES OF GA AND SC...DRIFTING SLOWLY W AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SQUALLS EARLIER TODAY. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH S OF BERMUDA AND OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ALONG ABOUT 68W OR SO...AND EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NLY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS S THROUGH SW OF BERMUDA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN WEAKEN AREA WIDE S OF 25N BY WEEKS END. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A PERTURBATION...AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE W END OF THE CARIB THROUGH THU. A SELY LLVL WIND SURGE WAS DEPICTED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING OF 20-25 KT..WITH SQUALLS MOVING FROM THE SW CARIB NW AND TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS IS LEAVING PEAK WINDS AND SEAS IN THE W CENTRAL CARIB A FEW DEGREES N OF COLOMBIA AND ITS TYPICAL LOCATION. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO AND APPROACHING THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE ANTILLES WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR E AND NE CARIB...LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE TRADES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE COMPLEX SERIES OF TROUGHS...FORMER TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...AND A STRETCHED AND ABOUT TO FRACTURE WAVE IN THE UPPER 40'S WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL WNW TO NW DIRECTION TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THEM...AND 20 KT WINDS TO THE N AND E OF THESE TROUGH AXIS. 6-8 FT SEAS WERE RUNNING ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W THIS MORNING AND WILL TRANSLATE NW AND SUBSIDE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING