000 AGXX40 KNHC 220624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE TX SHOULD ARRIVE AT TX AND LA COASTS AROUND SUNSET TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PENETRATION OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WATERS BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO REACH PSN FROM MS DELTA TO 26N94W TO 21N87W WHERE IT STALLS AND MEANDERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE FRONT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS W OF FRONT TO N AT 15-20 KT WED...BUT EXPECT THE SHORT DURATION TO MAX SEAS AT 6 FT DESPITE CAA OVER WARM SST. MODELS HAVE BACKED ON AMPLITUDE OF ELY WAVE MOVING THROUGH FL STRAITS TONIGHT. IN FACT UPPER FEATURES HAVE REVERSED OVER THE E GULF PAST 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS RETRACTED WESTWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING SE TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS. THUS...THE ELY WAVE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA AND IS QUITE BROAD FROM E-W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL MOVE AN INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN AREA THU...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. STILL EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THE NE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS TO 15-20 KT WED AND 15 KT THU AND A 10-15 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FRI-SAT. SW N ATLC... ALOFT...A COMPLICATED PATTERN OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE N PORTION AND SEVERAL MID TO UPPER CYCLONES ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE NW REACHING THE GA/SC COAST WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA THIS MORNING...BUT DO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP MOVING W THROUGH THE CAY SAL BANK ATTM...SO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL REMNANTS OF THE ELY WAVE THAT WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL AND FL STRAITS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THESE TROUGHS MOVE W OF 80W WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W. BETWEEN 65W AND 55W...THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW NEAR CURRENTLY NEAR 15N48W IS EXPECTED TO STEER INITIALLY NW AND LATER N AND NNE ALONG 55W AND WEAKEN TO A NE-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NW TO NEAR 23N55W THU. THE GRADIENT N OF THIS LOW HAS A BELT OF ELY 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 18N-26N E OF 55W. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NE AND DIMINISH AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY NW APPROACHING 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS BETWEEN 78W AND 55W. MOSTLY 10-15 KT TRADES EXCEPT 20-25 KT ALONG COAST OF S AMERICA. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT AS THE TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE PASSES N ALONG 55W...THE ELY TRADES WILL RELAX BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BASICALLY N OF 18N E OF 65W. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER NELSON