000 AGXX40 KNHC 162026 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS CUT OFF WHICH HAS CAUSED THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 26N94W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 1130Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST SW 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND 10-15 KT W TO NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 5 FT NEAR 29N89W...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE E...REACH THE LOCATION OF THE FIRST FRONT FRI...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE SECOND FRONT. HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE USUAL ENHANCED LOCATIONS...THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS ARE LIGHT ELSEWHERE...DUE TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST IS THE REMNANTS OF FRED LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA NEAR 20N51W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN OPENING THE REMNANT LOW INTO A TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES 55W LATE TONIGHT. THE UKMET IS THE OUTLIER...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND IS DISREGARDED IN THIS FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS TROUGH OR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF 20N...WHICH WILL CAUSE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. HOWEVER...E TO SE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC... A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW NEAR 32N79W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXIST WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE LOW FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TOMORROW...31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS FRI...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SAT. WINDS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED IN MAGNITUDE NEAR THE TROUGH AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FALLING BELOW 20 KT BY 36-48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE E WATERS FRI... THEN TRACK TO THE SE BAHAMAS SAT...AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS SUN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE BY THAT TIME. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI