000 AGXX40 KNHC 091753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ALLOWING ELY WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS EXCEPT WHERE THE LATE AFTERNOON INDUCED NE 15 TO 20 KT ALONG NW YUCATAN PENINSULA RESULTS IN 2 TO 4 FT WIND WAVES. MAT SEE SOME 3 TO 4 FT SWELLS NW WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS MAXIMIZED. MODELS BECOMING MORE AGREEABLE SO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS FRI WITH THE LOW THEN MOVING NNE OVER LAND. FRI NIGHT INTO MIDDAY SAT. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MOST AREAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GRADIENT TIGHTEST OVER S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS USUAL BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BRIEFLY THU THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRI THEN DIMINISH SOME SAT THROUGH MON. THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL LOW PRES 20N.61.5W MOVING W...CURRENTLY AT 20.8N63W AND SEPARATING FURTHER AND FURTHER FROM THE CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER ITS NE QUADRANT. THIS MAY FINALLY BE THE END OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW THAT HAS BEEN BEEN PROGGED TO DISSIPATE FOR THE PAST WEEK. OTHERWISE THE FLOW IS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE TX COAST. ONLY EXPECTED IMPACT FROM HURRICANE FRED WILL BE LONG PERIOD E SWELLS ARRIVING IN THE NE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE THIS WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NSW WATERS AND ALONG THE E COAST FL TO NW CUBA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TO ALONG 77W N OF 25N...AND DISSIPATE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF FRI. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 28 TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE A COLD...OR ACTUALLY COOL...FRONT WILL ARRIVE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUN NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS...THEN DRIFTS NW MON. SEEMS LIKE FRONT IS GOING TO JUST TEASE THE SUBTROPICS WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS WINDS N OF THIS WEAK FRONT WILL RAPIDLY CLOCK TO THE NE AND ONLY AT ABOUT 10 KT. WARNINGS... .ATLC... .NONE....HURCN FRED WARNING WELL E OF 55W. .CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER NELSON