000 AGXX40 KNHC 081723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK E-W THEN NE-SW TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO SW FL. A WEAK NW-SE TROUGH IS DENOTED OVER THE EXTREME SW WATER. A WEAK NE-SW RIDGE SEPARATES THESE TROUGHS...THUS THE WORDING WEAK PRES PATTERN IN SYNOPSIS. SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT. SOME GUIDANCE HAS COMPLETELY DROPPED SUGGESTION OF A NEW TROUGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE NW WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST A RETURN FLOW TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS AS ALL THE WEAK TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISSIPATE AND THE NE-SW RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 67W-77W WITH COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6-9 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUNSET WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE FURTHER W TO 60.5W BASED ON WIND SHIFTS IN THE 12Z SURFACE OBS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE W TO ALONG 70W LATE WED...76W LATE THU...84W LATE FRI AND MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SAT. THE LOW THAT ACCOMPANIED THIS WAVE IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 19N57W AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE NW AND SHOULD DAMPEN OUT BY MID WEEK...BUT MAY ENHANCE A FEW TSTMS WITHIN A COUPLE DEG E OF ITS AXIS. TC FRED NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A N-S TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO SE FL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK ALLOWING AN E-W RIDGE ALONG 27N TO BUILD W TO THE FL COAST FRI. WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS EXTREME NORTHER WATERS SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER NELSON