000 AGXX40 KNHC 080637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE VICINITY IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES... MAINLY OUT OF THE NE TO E. SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING 1-2 FT SEAS...BUT BUOY 42055 IS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS MIGHT BE A FT OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE SW WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER THE W WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE... LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-77W WITH COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6-9 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W...WHICH HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...IS ENHANCING NE TO E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 18N. OTHERWISE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SE EAST OF THE WAVE S OF 15N...AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT DATA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL STORM FRED LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SSW OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE REGION. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NW WATERS ...CURRENTLY FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT REMAINS EVIDENT BUT MAGNITUDES ON BOTH SIDES ARE AROUND 10 KT S OF 31N. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE ZONE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY UNIFORM SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW N OF 25N...EXCEPT NE W OF THE TROUGH...AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E-SE WINDS S OF 25N. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI