000
AGXX40 KNHC 061634
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS 
THE EXTREME N AND NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH TUE 
THEN AS RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND PUSH THE 
TROUGH BACK E TO OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS WED AND THU. 
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NW FL TO SW GULF AS THE TROUGH 
SHIFTS WESTWARD. A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL MOVE W OVER THE 
FL STRAITS MON...STALL AND MEANDER ALONG 81W TO 83W THROUGH MID 
WEEK.

SW ATLC ZONE...SEEMS LIKE THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE 
EXTREME NW WATERS OFF THE FL AND GA COASTS MAY MEANDER THROUGH 
THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT W OF THE BOUNDARY. A 
SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN EXTENSIONS OF 
TROPICAL WAVES...OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 23N...WILL MOVE W 
NW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN E 
TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 27N TO 28N TO THE E OF THE QUASI 
STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. EXPECT A NE TO 
SE WIND SHIFT AT MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THESE INVERTED 
TROUGHS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND ENHANCED 
CONVECTION.      
   
REMAINDER ATLC...TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE REMNANT 
TROUGH OF ERIKA OVER HAITI THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE NW OF AREA 
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER E CARIBBEAN WAS RELOCATED W TO 
ALONG 66W TO 67W...TO ALONG THE W EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE 
EVIDENT IN THE TRADE WIND CU. ALSO NO DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION...AND ONLY A 20 TO 30 DEG WIND SHIFT...AND ONLY 3 
TENTHS OF A MB PRES RISE IN SURFACE OBS ALONG WAVE AXIS. THIS 
WAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND THROUGH GULF 
OF HONDURAS WED. LOW PRES IS STILL ANALYZED AT 15N ON TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 46W...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE LOW TO FIZZLE OUT BEFORE 
WAVE REACHES TO ALONG 55W LATE MON...ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN TUE 
AND TO ALONG 75W LATE THU NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 
15N ALONG 37W AND SHOULD REACH 55W TUE NIGHT AND ENTER CARIBBEAN 
WED NIGHT TO ALONG 68W LATE THU NIGHT. THIS WAVE SPAWNED A 
SURFACE LOW DAYS AGO ANALYZED AT 19N33.5W THIS MORNING...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT 
WITHIN ABOUT 4 DEG OF CENTER EXPECT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. PSN ON 
GRAPHICS AMD MEDIUM RANGE ARE 21N38W AT 07/12Z...23N38W AT 
08/12Z...26N41W AT 09/12Z...27.5N43W AT 11/12Z AND DAY 5 29N45W 
AT 12/12Z. FAR E ATLC...NEXT WAVE ALONG ABOUT 17W THIS AM... 
ESTIMATING 6 DEG PER DAY SHOULD BE ALONG 35W THU MORNING AND 
LIKELY HAVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG IT AXIS AT 15N-17N.    
   
WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON