000
AGXX40 KNHC 051928
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 
ROUGHLY 28N WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE INLAND OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE 
WILL BUILD FROM NW FL TO NE OLD MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK 
REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS MON 
THROUGH WED WITH A SLIGHT NE TO SE WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE IN 
CONVECTION. 

SW ATLC...THE REMNANT TROUGH FROM ERIKA CURRENTLY EXTENDS NE 
FROM HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
BUT DECREASING IN BOTH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE ATTM. 
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE PAST FEW RUNS AS FAR AS FOR 
STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT...BUT NOW 
SEEMS TO STRETCH THE TROUGH FURTHER N AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS...OR 
MOVES SLOWLY...NW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COORDINATED MEDIUM 
RANGE PSN WILL BE 26N72W EARLY TUE AND 30N72W EARLY WED. THERE 
IS EVEN A SLIGHT HINT OF TROUGH MOVING W THROUGH FL STRAITS INTO 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MID WEEK. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH 
DAMPENS OUT NEXT THU OVER THE WATERS E OF N FL. WILL GO WITH SE 
WINDS AT 15-20 KT OVER A SMALL AREA SE OF TROUGH AXIS.      

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...BARELY SEE WIND SHIFT ALONG 
REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA THIS MORNING...BUT PRES GRADIENT IS 
TIGHTER OVER E CARIBBEAN AND NOT AS TIGHT OVER SW CARIBBEAN 
ALONG NW COLOMBIA AS EXPECTED. WILL MOVE ALL ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
EFFECTS INTO SW ATLC ZONE BY MIDDAY SUN. WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 
60W SET OFF SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO WIND AND SEAS AS THE WAVE MOVES W 15 KT TO 
ALONG 70W MON AND ALONG 83W WED. LOW PRES STILL ANALYZED AT 17N 
ON TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W...BUT EXPECT LOW TO FIZZLE OUT AS 
WAVE MOVES W TO ALONG 55W MON AND TO ALONG 65W WED. BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG WAVE AT 30W THIS MORNING NOT AS 
IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY... AND NHC DROPPED POSSIBLE CYCLONE 
FORMATION TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...THUS WORDING REMOVED FROM 
ALPHANUMERICS THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE AND WILL NOT BE ON NEXT 
GRAPHICAL PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE PSN FOR LOW ARE 21N42W EARLY TUE 
THEN CONTINUED NW TRACK AT 15 KT WED THROUGH FRI KEEPING IT E OF 
55W.       

WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON