000
AGXX40 KNHC 040659
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE LOW PRES AT 0000 UTC NEAR 27N84W 1011 
MB WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN CHANNEL TO LOW AND INTO 
TAMPA BAY. LOW WILL BECOME BROAD AND WEAKEN AND SOUTHERN END OF 
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. REMAINING ZONAL TROUGH WILL LIFT N 
ALONG 28N/29N TONIGHT THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIGHT WINDS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE 
GULF.

SW N ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH AT 0000 UTC FROM 30N78W TO 1012 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 29N80W TO CAPE CANAVERAL...FL WILL MEANDER OVER NW 
WATERS THROUGH SUN. MEANWHILE...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR T.D. ERIKA 
CARRIES THE SYSTEM NW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS SAT NIGHT AS A 
REMNANT LOW WITH 20 KT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS. THE ASCAT PASS 
FROM 0204 UTC SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT CONFINED TO THE NE 
QUADRANT...WITH SHIP C6OM8 NEAR 22N65W CONFIRMING THESE WINDS 
ARE STILL OVER 25 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT AT 0600 UTC. THE GFS 
CARRIES THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL WIND 
CIRCULATION WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK COMPARED TO THE UKMET 
AND NOGAPS WHICH ALSO CARRY A CLOSED CIRCULATION...BUT MOVE THE 
LOW FARTHER W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEFORE ALLOWING THE 
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO STEER THE 
SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 
NOGAPS AND UKMET SOLNS THAN THE MORE INTENSE GFS...BUT IS 
WEAKER. FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THIS WEAKER AND MORE 
WESTERLY GROUP OF SOLUTIONS. ECMWF IS THE CLOSEST GLOBAL MODEL 
SOLUTION TO THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. IT DOES NOT BRING WINDS 
TO 20 KT OR ABOVE AFTER SAT NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING THE 
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AS A 
TROUGH. 

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...T.D. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NW 
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE MEAN 
SURFACE TROUGHING TO ITS S FORCING FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE DECREASED 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL HELP KEEP TRADE WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT 
NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE LESSER 
ANTILLES SAT...CROSS 70W SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE/WED. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W WITH A 
1012 MB EMBEDDED LOW NEAR 14N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
ZONE MON AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE. EXPECT THE EMBEDDED 
SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA.


WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK