000
AGXX40 KNHC 020812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM N FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS HAS NOT 
DENTED FLAT PRES PATTERN ACROSS GULF AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES 
FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA.  LIGHT TO GENTLE 
BREEZE AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREDOMINANT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN.  
CONVERGING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE MAIN FEATURE AS 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAINLY IN N HALF AND EXTREME SE PARTS OF 
BASIN.  FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE FRI WHILE TROUGH 
REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN.   

ATLC SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N74W TO 22N77W DRIFT NW AND MERGE 
WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI.  TROPICAL 
STORM ERIKA NOW OVER TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST TO CROSS 65W LATE 
FRI IN W-NW TRACK JUST N OF GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH SUN.  LARGE 
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH 
TIMING AND POSITION OF SYSTEM.  MARINE INTEREST SHOULD MONITOR 
CONTINUOUS PROGRESS OF ERIKA THROUGH WMO HEADER TCMAT1 OR WTNT21 
KNHC.    

RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED 
WITH LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...BUT A VERY RAGGED CENTER 
DIFFICULT TO DEFINE.  STRONGEST WINDS PRESENTLY IN NE SEMICIRCLE 
AND SE QUADRANT SHOULD REMAIN N OF LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS 
CENTER SKIRTS NE CORNER OF CARIBBEAN.  STRONG BREEZE AND LARGE 
SWELL PRODUCED BY ERIKA ARE LIKELY TO FIND THEIR WAY INTO 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS PASSAGES AND LOW ISLANDS AND COULD AFFECT AS 
MUCH AS WATERS N OF 16N E OF 65W DURING NEXT 48 HRS.  

ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN...ERIKA HAS FLATTENED PRES GRADIENT AND 
EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHED ANY STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN.  
ONLY SMALL AREA ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA ACCOUNTS FOR A MODERATE 
BREEZE WHILE REMAINING BASIN...EXCEPT NE PART UNDER INFLUENCE OF 
ERIKA...GETS A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE.

WARNINGS
ATLC...
.TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N...AMZ087...

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES