000 AGXX40 KNHC 310806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 25N90W CURTAILS ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN INTRUSION BY TROUGH WHICH THEN DISSIPATES BY TONIGHT. RIDGE MAINTAIN FAIRLY FLAT GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE AS A RESULT. ONLY NW CORNER OF YUCATAN PENINSULA ESCAPES THIS PATTERN WITH 15 KT WINDS NOTED DURING EVENINGS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY S OF 15N WITH STRONG BREEZE ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W ENHANCES THESE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TUE AND WED AS PRES GRADIENT EASES. BY THU A BROAD LOW PRES 1007 MB MOVES ACROSS N PART OF TRPCL ATLC MAINTAINING FLAT GRADIENT AND FRESH TRADES ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES MIGHT BE ONLY SURFACE FORCE SUPPORTING WINDS. INTERESTS ACROSS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR PROGRESS OF SYSTEM. TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 75W MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE REACHING YUCATAN PENINSULA WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... ATLC RIDGE EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA DRIFT N THROUGH THU AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NW WATERS AND WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NW BAHAMAS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER N WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER W PORTION OF BASIN AS TROUGH LINGERS OVER NW BAHAMAS. BROAD TROPICAL LOW PRES MENTIONED UNDER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SE WATERS LATE FRI INCREASING NE-E WINDS AND ADDING MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO NE CARIBBEAN/SE PORTION OF SW N ATLC. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BRING LOW PRES TO 65W THEN SHIFT IT N WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON BASIN...BUT DIFFER IN INTENSITY AND TIMING. EXPECT TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ONCE SYSTEM BECOME BETTER DEFINED. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES