000 AGXX40 KNHC 301936 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1800 UTC...A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 21N95W TO 23N96W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SW LOUISIANA TO ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO ABOUT CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS MON MORNING THEN WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF WATERS TUE MORNING WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO WED. N-NE WINDS OF 15 KT AND SEAS OF UP TO 3 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE NWW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEAS OF UP TO 4 FT MON MORNING MOST LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EPAC REGION. IN ADDITION...NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE YUCATAN COAST DURING THE EVENINGS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY S OF 15N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE DURATION OF THIS FLOW OVER LARGE FETCH AREA HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 9 FT. THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE THESE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TUE AND WED AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THU AND FRI AS A NEW LOW PRES FORMS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 72W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON THROUGH TUE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE INTO WED. A 1007 MB LOW...WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IS OBSERVED E OF THE AREA NEAR 11N48W AT 1800 UTC WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. IT IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 13 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 14N52W EARLY MON AFTERNOON...NEAR 15N53W EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR 19N60W WED...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC LATE THU AND FRI. INTERESTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAINLY ON THE N SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BUOY 41040 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE 15 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL LIFT N FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AND TUE. THE RIDGE THEN WILL RETREAT NE WED AND THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS. A BELT OF E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST S OF 22N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE N AND NE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BY TUE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO CHANGING WIND AND SEAS FOR THIS PORTION OF THIS ZONE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOES A DEVELOPING TREND DURING THE NEXT 48-72W HOURS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CHANGES REQUIRED FOR WINDS AND SEAS FOR THOSE WATERS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER GR/JA