000 AGXX40 KNHC 291928 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N88W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SURFACE DATA AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF AND W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MON MORNING BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE MEETS UP WITH IT LATER IN THE DAY...REINFORCING THE BOUNDARY AND SENDING IT FARTHER S EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N90W TUE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE WED. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT AND SEAS OF UP TO 4 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE NWW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEAS OF UP TO 5 FT MON MORNING MOST LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY S OF 15N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THIS FLOW IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN OR PANAMANIAN LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W MOVING WWD AT 10 TO 15 KT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...CROSSING 70W MON MORNING AND 75W TUE MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS NEAR 10.5N41W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WED INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1004 MB LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF DANNY...LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N74W WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS N AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF DANNY TO NEAR 27N80W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND SE FROM 30N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT FROM 30N63W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT NE TUE AND WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. A BELT OF E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST S OF 22N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE N AND NE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BY TUE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER GR