000 AGXX40 KNHC 290657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N89W WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH MORNING WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. SURFACE DATA AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2342 UTC SHOW THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AMONGST THE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO THE SW END OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE PENSACOLA...FL TO NEAR 24N94W MON MORNING BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE MEETS UP WITH IT LATER IN THE DAY...REINFORCING THE BOUNDARY AND SENDING IT FARTHER S IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT AND SEAS OF UP TO 4 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2356 UTC SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH SAT...THEN DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN BEFORE REBUILDING BEHIND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 57W...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...CROSSING 70W SAT NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N41W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... AT 29/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31.4N 74.9W MOVING TO THE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DANNY AND HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND THE NC/VA PIEDMONT IS ALLOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO REMAIN ON ITS E AND N SIDES. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2342 UTC CONFIRMS THIS. BUOY 41047 IS STILL SHOWING S WINDS AT 20 KT. THIS WAS CONFIRMED AT 0200 UTC BY SHIP MRGU3 WHICH REPORTED 22 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS. 12 FOOT SEA AREA HAS MOVED N OF THE FORECAST IN THE SW QUADRANT AND SHOULD DO SO BY MORNING IN THE SE QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANNY. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 28N LATER TODAY AND SUN...THEN SHIFT FROM 30N63W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT NE TUE AND WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A TROPICAL WAVE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVES NW INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/GR