000
AGXX40 KNHC 260751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
DIFFUSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM N FLORIDA TO 23N90W CONTINUE 
KICKING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG ITS STRETCH.  OTHERWISE PRES 
PATTERN REMAINS FLAT WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE 
ACROSS ALL ZONES.  WITH HIGH PRES OVER SE CONUS MODEL GUIDANCE 
AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR REMAINING OF WEEK.  THE ONLY 
INTERRUPTION IN THE FIELD IS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING 
NW GULF WATERS LATE FRI AND SAT SHIFTING WINDS...BUT WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN SPEEDS.  

CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W S OF 17N SWEPT AWAY LOW PRES CIRCULATION 
INTO THE E PAC EARLY TODAY.  REMAINING CONVECTION OVER N COAST 
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS DAY PROGRESSES 
WITH LITTLE ACTION E OF WAVE AXIS LEFT.  WITH THAT LOW PRES OUT 
OF BASIN AND ANOTHER JUST FORMED NE OF PUERTO RICO...PRES 
GRADIENT FLATTENED LEAVING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS 
CARIBBEAN.  DOES NOT TAKE LONG FOR NEW LOW PRES 1008 MB TO FORM 
OVER COLOMBIA AND GALE CENTER OVER SW N ATLC MOVES N OF 25N 
ALLOWING RIDGE TO REBUILD SW AND RE-ESTABLISH GRADIENT WITH 
COLOMBIAN LOW PRES.  TRADES INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE WITH 
STRONGER WINDS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST.  

SW N ATLC...
CREST OF TROPICAL WAVE BROKE OFF LATE YESTERDAY AND HEADS NW AS 
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB.  TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT WITH CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS 
MAINLY IN NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER ALONG WITH NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION.  RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO SYSTEM YESTERDAY COULD 
NOT FIND SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BUT SCHEDULED TO FLY AGAIN 
LATER THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM HAS POSSIBILITY OF TURNING INTO 
TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL NEEDS SOME TIME TO PULL WINDS AND 
WRAP AROUND CLOSER TO CENTER.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERT IN 
SOLUTIONS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH WHILE STILL OVER WARM 
WATERS NEAR GULFSTREAM...BUT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ESCAPES WELL 
W OF CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS WHILE MANY CLOUDS W OF CENTER 
MOVE AWAY FROM CIRCULATION...NOT A SIGN OF STRENGTH.  

MEANTIME LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW THROUGH THU 
WITH MODELS TURNING IT MORE NORTHERLY THEN NE FRI AS IT BECOMES 
ABSORBED BY COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD BY SAT.  
SHOULD SYSTEM NOT BE ABLE TO PULL WINDS CLOSER TO CENTER...GALE 
FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE N OF 31N LATE TONIGHT.   

REFER TO LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOAT...FROM NHC 
ON THIS EVOLVING TROPICAL WAVE...AS WELL AS THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECASTS FROM TAFB...MIAHSFAT2. 

WARNINGS
ATLC...
.GALE WARNING N OF 24N FROM 67W TO 72W...

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES