000 AGXX40 KNHC 151945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FRACTURED AND IS NOW MOVING NW CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR SE GULF. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FL STRAITS AND SE WATERS. E TO SE WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 4-6 FT. E TO SE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF TONIGHT AND SUN THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS MON AND TUE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH E TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT E OF THE AXIS AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY INCORPORATE THIS FEATURE TO SOME DEGREE IN THE NEXT PACKAGE FOR THE E GULF ZONE. CARIBBEAN... SFC OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA REVEAL A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT ELY TRADES BETWEEN 68W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W. SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SUN...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TROPICAL STORM ANA WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUN AND MON AS A TROPICAL STORM THEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES MON THROUGH WED. WHILE WARNINGS ARE NOT POSTED...A SWD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST COULD WARRANT ONE. AS ANA MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BILL...FORMERLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...WILL BE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. STAYED TUNED FOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY DETAILING FUTURE TRACKS AND INTENSITY ON BOTH ANA AND BILL. TROPICAL N ATLC... COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS AREA DUE TO TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS ZONE. TROPICAL STORM ANA E OF THE AREA NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 1500 UTC MOVING W 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. ANA WILL REACH TO 15.2N 54.4W SUN WITH WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT THEN TO 16.1N 58.2W WITH WINDS OF 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT SUN NIGHT...AND JUST W OF THE AREA LATE MON. ACCORDINGLY...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS ZONE N OF 15N FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BILL AT 2100 UTC IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW AN OVERALL SIMILAR TRACK TO ANA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THIS STORM. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM ANA AND A HURRICANE ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT S PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 27N E OF 76W TUE AND WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS. AT PRESENT...A SURFACE HIGH IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. CURRENTLY...NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONE...WITH SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONE. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH. BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HURRICANE. WARNINGS ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER ARIEL COHEN/JOHN CANGIALOSI/AGUIRRE