000 AGXX40 KNHC 141937 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEING INDUCED BY A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION AND LOW PRES OVER MEXICO. BUOYS ARE REPORTING MAINLY 1-2 FT COMBINED SEAS...THOUGH LIKELY HIGHER IN TSTMS OVER THE NE WATERS. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST IS THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WAVE...TAKES IT TO S FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEN FRACTURES THE N PORTION AND MOVES IT NW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE REGION AND INCREASE E TO SE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...HIGHEST IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... SFC OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA REVEAL A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT ELY TRADES BETWEEN 68W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE AXIS TONIGHT AND SAT. THE WAVE EXITS THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SUN...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...WHICH COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. FOR THIS FORECAST I USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE TRACK FORECAST BRINGING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO NEAR 55W SUN...AND CROSSING THE N HALF OF THE ZONE THROUGH MON. TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK W...AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUN AS FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...WHICH COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN...MOVES ACROSS THE ZONE SUN AND MON. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE ZONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF 15N. MAXIMUM SEAS TO 11 FT WILL LIKELY RESULT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL NORTH ATLC IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ZONE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER E PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY TUE. SW N ATLC... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N69W WILL SHIFT JUST N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS LOCATIONS SW THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM 28N74W TO 25N76W...AND IS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AVAILABLE SFC/SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS BEHIND THE WAVE. BASICALLY...THESE CONDITIONS WERE EXTRAPOLATED WWD IN THE FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS/WW3. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY FRACTURE ONCE AGAIN AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE PORTION OF THE ZONE TUE...ALONG WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND MAXIMUM SEAS UP TO 10 FT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/COHEN