000 AGXX40 KNHC 132055 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEING INDUCED BY A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION AND THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOYS ARE REPORTING MAINLY 1-2 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST IS THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 70W. GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WAVE...MOVES IT TO S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AND THEN FRACTURES THE N PORTION AND MOVES IT NW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE REGION AND INCREASE E TO SE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...HIGHEST IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... SFC OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA REVEAL 20-25 KT NE/E TRADES IN THE USUAL TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ZONE...FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND E TO SE 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W/69W. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD THE 20-25 KT SWATH WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR 72W FRI MORNING...78W SAT MORNING...AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE AXIS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SQUALLS. THE WAVE EXITS THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SUN...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN MON OVER THE FAR NE WATERS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. TROPICAL N ATLC... ELY 20-25 KT FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15-20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUN AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE ZONE. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE DEPRESSION STEADY STATE AT 25 KT. ACCORDINGLY...HEADLINES WERE DROPPED FOR THE ZONE. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 FT OR SO ACROSS THE N HALF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN SQUALLS. SW N ATLC... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W WILL SHIFT JUST N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI REACHING S FLORIDA SAT. AVAILABLE SFC/SCAT DATA SHOW E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS BEHIND THE WAVE. BASICALLY...EXTRAPOLATING THESE CONDITIONS WWD IN THE FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS/WW3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY STATE AS IT APPROACHES THE SE PART MON...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FAR SE CORNER BY DAY 5. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AGUIRRE