000 AGXX40 KNHC 121809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK TROUGH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR 27N93W WILL BE REINFORCED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. BY THEN A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N FL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NW REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...AND THEN MOVE W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER THAT IS SEPARATING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE N OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. THIS PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WAVE LATE THIS WEEK REACHING S FL SAT WITH THE REMNANTS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE SE GULF LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FT E OF THE WAVE FOR THE LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR SE RETURN FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY REACH 15 KT ALONG TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WELL S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BACKING OF WINDS TO NE AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE NE COAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...ELY TRADES AT 15 TO 25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION IS ALONG 60W AND MOVING W AT 17 KT. A BAND OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS...AT 20 TO 25 KT AND 7 TO 10 FT...FOLLOWS THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SPREADING E SWELLS THROUGH THE EXPOSED NE PASSAGES THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES E OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE FRI...BUT ELY TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GRADIENT WILL DAMPEN OUT SOME BY SUN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTING E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. CONCERN THEN SWITCHES TO THE WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AS TD 2 IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND TURN NW WITH TS FORCE WINDS EFFECTING THE ATLC WATERS N OF 18N E OF 61W SUN. FOR NOW IT SEEMS LIKE ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 7 FT WILL ARRIVE AT NE ATLC PASSAGES AROUND SUNRISE MON. SOME GUIDANCE REALLY LIKES THE NEXT WAVE MOVING OFF AFRICA THIS MORNING AND RACES IT E TO ALONG 35W SUNRISE SAT AND 55W MON AS AN INTENSE CYCLONE. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WORDING ADDED TO 72 HR GRAPHIC TO GIVE AS MUCH HEADS UP AS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS THE AFRICAN DOOR HAS OPENED. SW N ATLC...REMNANTS OF A WEAK TROUGH FROM 31N58W TO 26N74W ARE DRIFTING NW ATTM AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WNW TO ALONG 31N LATE FRI. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WNW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...REACHING S FLORIDA SAT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED ALONG A BAND FROM 15N TO 20N E OF THE WAVE...SO EXPECT E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT E OF THE WAVE OVER THE AREA S OF 24N. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EXPOSED WATERS AROUND THE BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO APPROACHES NEAR 27N65W LATE MON. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TS WRNG E OF AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON