000 AGXX40 KNHC 111723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S TODAY REACHING E TO W ALONG 26N TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH HAS ALREADY DIPPED IN THE EXTREME NE PART...AND A SECOND WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE OVER THE NE WATERS WED MERGING AND IMMEDIATELY STALLING...WITH THE REMNANTS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK N ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI NIGHT AND LIE E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. IN ANY EVENT EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR SE RETURN FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY REACH 15 KT ALONG TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WELL S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BACKING OF WINDS TO NE AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE NE COAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...ELY TRADES HAVE RELAXED OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES OF CONCERN NOW CONCENTRATED S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W...AT 20 TO 25 KT EXCEPT ONE SHIP REPORTING 30 KT NEAR 13N75W...BUT ONLY WITH 7 FT SEAS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W HAS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS AS IT MOVES W IN PHASE WITH THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. BUT TSTMS ARE FLARING W OF 80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N89W WHICH IS ALSO MOVING W ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ATLC TUTT. A SECOND WAVE ALONG 65W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 12 KT WHICH SHOULD MOVE IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT CONTINUES ALONG 13N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 60W. A THIRD WAVE ALONG 52W IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION OF NE TO E WIND SHIFT N OF 14N ALONG WAVE AXIS. STILL BELIEVE THE GFS IS OVERDOING WIND AND SEAS... AND HAVE TONED DOWN FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH UKMET. THE NORTHERN VORT NEAR 16N52W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WNW PATH BRUSHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THU THROUGH SUN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE WILL MOVE W AT 15 KT INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE WED REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THROUGH EARLY SUN...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO BUILD SOME GRADIENT AND SEAS ON SAT FORECAST TROPICAL ZONE AS THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM APPROACHES. SW N ATLC...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N65W TO 24N75W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES N OF THE TROUGH AT 30N74W 1020 MB WILL OPEN INTO AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WED THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT N OF AREA SAT AND SUN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS THU THROUGH SUN ACCOMPANIED BY ELY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. GFS SEEMS TO LIKE THE CURRENT CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN VORT OF THE WAVE...RESULTING IN THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS GFS IS SUGGESTING IN THE LATER PERIODS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. TS WRNG E OF AREA. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON