000 AGXX40 KNHC 101708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK RIDGE...WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT...WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WELL S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BACKING OF WINDS TO NE AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE NE COAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...STRONG ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AND DROP WINDS ABOUT 5 KT TONIGHT..EXPECT ELY 15 TO 20 KT OVER S CENTRAL WATERS EXCEPT 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W HAS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND VIRTUALLY NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE WIND SHIFT. A WAVE ALONG 60W HAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ATTM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 14N. WILL MOVE THIS WAVE 12 KT THROUGH CARIBBEAN ON GRAPHICS. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 47W IS KICKING OFF CONVECTION ALONG ITS NORTHERN VORT AT 15N45W WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER IS SPINNING AT 10N40W...WHICH IS LIKELY THE SOUTHERN VORT. WILL MOVE THIS WAVE W AT 15 KT INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE WED. A THIRD WAVE IS ALONG 26W WITH A SURFACE LOW ALREADY INDICATED NEAR 14N25W AT 12Z THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED IT WESTWARD TOO QUICKLY AND CURRENT NHC THINKING IS MUCH SLOWER AND STILL JUST E OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING HIGH SEAS WITH LOW NEAR 16N35W AT SUNRISE WED AND AMENDED FORECAST TO MENTION POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE PER NHC. ATLC...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N55W TO 26N74W SHOULD WASH OUT TUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE TROUGH E OF 67W THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ATLC E TO W RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT N OF DISSIPATING TROUGH AND MEANDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 24N WED THROUGH SAT WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...BUT GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DISAGREE ON STRENGTH WITH GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF ELY TRADES ON THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON