000 AGXX40 KNHC 081858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MORNING ANALYSES FROM BOTH 12 AND 15 UTC CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF... WHICH PRETTY MUCH HAS BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1140 UTC THIS MORNING AND A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1600 UTC SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF 2 FT W OF ABOUT 91W...AND 2 TO 3 FT E OF 91W. THIS IN PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCES EXCEPT THE FAR SE WATERS NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SEAS THERE APPEAR UNDONE BY ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE WHICH CAUGHT ON TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS THERE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N90W NE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE REGIONAL NAM GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN PRESENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS. MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...STILL HINT THAT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS MON THROUGH WED...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH IT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 80W MOVING W 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING. A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N52W TO 17N48W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS STILL HINT THAT A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THIS TROUGH AND TRACKS WNW TO NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON SUN...THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR SE POTION OF THE SW N ATLC NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLN IS STILL QUITE MURKY AS OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A POSSIBLE LOW SUSTAIN ITSELF OF IT DOES FORM. TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MAXIMUM SEAS UP TO 13 FT IN THE FAR SW PART NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE SEAS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BEGINNING MON OF NEXT WEEK TO ABOUT 8 OR 9 FT AS GRADIENT RELAXES OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THIS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME. SW ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE AREA MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT CONDITIONS AS SEEN IN BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE E-SE WINDS WERE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 30N72W MOVES NW WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL EXIST E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3 TO 5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON BUILDING SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE FEATURE OR WEAK LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MAY POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR SE PART OF THE SW ATLC BEGINNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WED...ALL OF THIS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR N THE WAVE WILL EXTEND...AND AS TO WHETHER A DEFINITIVE LOW FEATURE DEVELOPS FROM IT OR NOT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 081858 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MORNING ANALYSES FROM BOTH 12 AND 15 UTC CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF... WHICH PRETTY MUCH HAS BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1140 UTC THIS MORNING AND A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1600 UTC SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF 2 FT W OF ABOUT 91W...AND 2 TO 3 FT E OF 91W. THIS IN PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCES EXCEPT THE FAR SE WATERS NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SEAS THERE APPEAR UNDONE BY ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE WHICH CAUGHT ON TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS THERE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N90W NE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE REGIONAL NAM GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN PRESENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS. MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...STILL HINT THAT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS MON THROUGH WED...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH IT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 80W MOVING W 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING. A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N52W TO 17N48W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS STILL HINT THAT A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THIS TROUGH AND TRACKS WNW TO NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON SUN...THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR SE POTION OF THE SW N ATLC NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLN IS STILL QUITE MURKY AS OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A POSSIBLE LOW SUSTAIN ITSELF OF IT DOES FORM. TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MAXIMUM SEAS UP TO 13 FT IN THE FAR SW PART NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE SEAS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BEGINNING MON OF NEXT WEEK TO ABOUT 8 OR 9 FT AS GRADIENT RELAXES OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THIS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME. SW ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE AREA MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT CONDITIONS AS SEEN IN BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE E-SE WINDS WERE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 30N72W MOVES NW WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL EXIST E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3 TO 5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON BUILDING SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE FEATURE OR WEAK LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MAY POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR SE PART OF THE SW ATLC BEGINNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WED...ALL OF THIS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR N THE WAVE WILL EXTEND...AND AS TO WHETHER A DEFINITIVE LOW FEATURE DEVELOPS FROM IT OR NOT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE