000 AGXX40 KNHC 061827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EDT THU WED AUG 06 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FRONT THIS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS WITH THE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF 1-2 FT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12 UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER S FLORIDA EXTENDS SW INTO THE FAR SE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN QUITE ACTIVE WITH RESPECT TO TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS ARE E-SE 15 KT OVER THIS AREA AND GUSTY NEAR THE TSTMS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON FRI. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...AND CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE SOLN AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE WITH LITTLER OVERALL CHANGE IN PRESENT CONDITIONS. A SECOND TROUGH...THE NORTHERN FRAGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND APPEARS THAT IT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE E CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF ON MON. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W/80W IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND W OF THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W IS ALSO MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. PRESENTLY THE WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY CONVECTIVE RIGHT ALONG ITS AXIS...BUT IS FOLLOWED BY A BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-14N E OF 64W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION TONIGHT AND FRI...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION FRI EVENING THROUGH SUN. IT WILL THEN EXIT THE CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC PRESENTS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY AS IT HAS A HISTORY OF INDUCING SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTS AT SOME FORM OF A LOW TRACKING WNW TO NEAR 15N55W EARLY SUN...AND INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA MON AND TUE. TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 25-30 KT ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING DUE TO TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY ATLC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. LATEST WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 13 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. SW ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE AREA MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT CONDITIONS AS SEEN IN BUOY...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE N TO NEAR 30N SAT AND SUN. A TROUGH FROM NEAR HISPANIOLA TO 28N67W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI ...REACH THE NW BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA COAST ON SAT. EXPECT ACTIVE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER SOME OF THE WATERS S AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3 TO 5 FT W AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BACKING NE WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AS A TROPICAL LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IS EXPECTED IN DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE FORECAST. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE