000 AGXX40 KNHC 051700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER NE WATERS ATTM WITH ISOLATED TSTMS PER RECENT LIGHTNING DATA. WINDS IN VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS ARE THE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW WATERS ALONG A WEAK RIDGE. EXPECT THE RIDGE EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAK TROUGH TO FILL IN TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT... THEN THE RIDGE SHOULD MEANDER E TO W OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI NIGHT THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA SAT THROUGH MON. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WNW THROUGH THE SE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECTING THE NEAR SUNSET BACKING WIND SHIFT TO THE N AND NE AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE EACH DAY TILL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ENHANCED SEAS FORECAST FL STRAITS AS NEAR DUE E FLOW BUCKS CURRENT. A SECOND TROUGH ...THE NORTHERN FRAGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE THU. A SECOND WAVE...OR ELY WIND SURGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL RACE W ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY CONVECTIVE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AT THE MOMENT...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 400 NM TO ITS E. THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE W AT AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THU AND FRI AND W OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A FOURTH WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC PRESENTS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY AS IT HAS SPAWNED A SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N34W. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS LOW AND MOVES IT WNW TO NEAR 15N55W SUNRISE SUN AND THEN TAKES IT NEAR THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MON. WILL BUILD A LOW OR TROUGH INTO THE NEXT SUITE OF MARINE GRAPHICS. WINDS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST OCCASIONALLY AT 25 TO 30 KT. SW ATLC W OF 55W... THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WNW THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ATTM. A RIDGE DISSECTS THE NORTHERN ATLC WATERS FROM 31N65W TO 28N80W AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N LATE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING LIGHT SLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT S OF 27N SUPPORTING SE 15 TO 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN GUIDANCE SUGGEST BACKING NE WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AS A TROPICAL LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED FORECAST. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON