000 AGXX40 KNHC 050816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 415 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING...YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF...AND MODERATE WINDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE SRN GULF. 4-5 FT SEAS WERE LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SRN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT NEAR AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHS DROPPING SE AND STALLING OVER THE NE GULF WATERS...AS SUPPORT FROM THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH NOW FORECAST NOT TO REACH INTO THE NE GULF COASTS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER...GENERALLY OCCURRING IN NE TO SE LINES AND BANDS. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WNW INTO EXTREME SRN FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE E AND SE HALF OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AS WINDS BLOW DIRECTLY AGAINST THE CURRENT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO OPEN UP ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF A LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 5-6 FT ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN AND ENTIRE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH ELY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS OCCURS. THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE S OF 20N IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY E 15 TO 20 KT WITH NE TO E WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN APPROACHING 70W THIS MORNING IS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS IT HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STRETCHED IN ITS TREK ACROSS THE ATLC...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE N OF 17N AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BEHIND THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS SEEN A SIMILAR FATE...WITH THE N PORTION ALREADY BREAKING AWAY FROM THE SRN PORTION AS IT ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS WAVE...MOVING INTO THE E CARIB TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB AND HISPANIOLA THU AND THU NIGHT. SOME SQUALLY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN DURING THIS TIME...LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WEATHER...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF SAHARAN AIR OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESPOND THU NIGHT AND FRI...BEHIND THE WAVE...INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ERN CARIB...AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB...WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 30 KT FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT...AND COULD REACH TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH SUN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 7 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE ERN CARIB THIS WEEKEND AND 9 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS. SW ATLC W OF 55W... THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC...AND HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL INITIATE SCATTERED SQUALLS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 20N AND E OF 68W THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT AND GREATER POSSIBLE. WEATHER WILL FADE WITH THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY UNDER THE NARROW TROUGH AND THEN FLARE AGAIN TO A LESSER DEGREE W OF 70W TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC THIS MORNING...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS HAS INDUCED A MILD INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND 20 KT ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. AN EVENING ASCAT PASS SHOWED ESE WINDS AT 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS...LIKELY RAISING SEAS 7-8 FT THERE. THIS WIND SURGE WILL SHIFT WNW ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LIKELY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WSW TO NRN FLORIDA AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ANCHORING HIGH SHIFTS NE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE 15-20 KT ESE TRADES TO RETURN TO THE ATLC S OF 24N BY SAT...AND A SOLID 20 KT WITH POCKETS OF 25 KT ALONG THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS CHAIN. THE WIND SURGE MOVING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ELY WIND SWELL TO THE AREA S OF 24N...AND MAINTAIN 6-7 FT SEAS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING