000 AGXX40 KNHC 030826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED E TO W ACROSS THE NRN GULF TONIGHT...ALONG ABOUT 28N...YIELDING LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE N HALF OF THE GULF...WITH 10-15 KT SE WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND SEAS THERE 2-3 FT. ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS WAS THE EVENING N-NELY 20 KT FLOW OFF THE NW AND W COASTS OF THE YUCATAN...WHERE SEAS HAD LIKELY BUILT 4-5 FT OVER THE SHALLOW SHELF WATERS. A TUTT LOW MOVING SW ACROSS THE YUCATAN HAD ENHANCED AFTERNOON CNVTN THERE AND WAS BEING TRANSPORTED QUICKLY SW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO SRN MEXICO AIDED BY 40-45 KT NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. NO CHANGE TO THIS LLVL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST BY FRI NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE N AND NW GULF WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MODEST LLVL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE E-SE FLOW S OF THE SFC RIDGE PROVIDES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF ON WED FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LAST 2 TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC HAVE BEEN VERY LARGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE...AND COMPLEX...BECOMING ENTANGLED WITH UPPER LOWS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WAS STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED...MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NE CARIB THIS MORNING...EXTENDING SE TO THE WINDWARDS. A LARGE AREA OF SAL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE CARIB N OF 13N ALL THE WAY TO 81W...WHERE MOISTURE TRAILING A DOWNSTREAM WAVE WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN. THE LLVL JET ACROSS THE CARIB OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE NE CARIB WAS YIELDING A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 16.5N AND BETWEEN 68.5W AND 79W...WITH 30 KT WINDS INDICATED BY AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS THERE WERE FORECAST BY WWIII TO BE 7-10 FT AND UP TO 12 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 20 KT WINDS WERE ALSO BLOWING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WERE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE...20 KT...GENERALLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N AND NW OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE ISOLATED DEEP CNVTV CLUSTERS WERE FIRING UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING ON THE S SIDE OF A NARROW TUTT AXIS. THIS WAVE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SEPARATE BETWEEN A N AND S SEGMENT...WITH THIS NRN PORTION EXPECTED TO MOVE W NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE WNW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TUE AND EVENTUALLY REACHING ALONG THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA BY WED EVENING/NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE FEATURE AS IT PROGRESSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS E OF 68W...AND CONDITIONS NEARLY STATUS QUO ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG ABOUT 55W TUE EVENING...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF IT...AND THEN INTO THE ERN CARIB WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NE CARIB...AND SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT IN NELY WIND SWELL BY LATE WED...AND WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING FURTHER BEHIND THIS WAVE THU AND FRI. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THESE TWO WAVES HAS PUSHED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS N OF 18N AS THEY HAVE CROSSED THE ATLC...YIELDING MODERATE SEAS FOR THE TROPICAL ATLC THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. AN ELONGATED FETCH N OF 18N ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND WAVE WILL GENERATE NELY SWELL AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC. SW ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO NEAR PALM BEACH TONIGHT WITH FRESH S TO SWLY FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST N OF 30N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES CONFINED S OF 25N ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO RECENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND AID IN CREATING A LONG E-NE FETCH BETWEEN 18N AND 25N...OR SO...WHERE 7-8 FT SEAS...AND LOCALLY 9 FT...AT 8-9 SECONDS MOVE THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK...AND ENTER THE NE CARIB AND ATLC WATERS TO THE N THU...AND INTO THE BAHAMAS FRI. 20 KT WINDS S OF 23N ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED E OF CENTRAL CUBA...OR ABOUT 78W THROUGH TUE NIGHT...BEFORE THE N PORTION OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE USHERS IN A LLVL E-SE WIND SURGE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WED-THU...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO NE FLORIDA AND OFF THE COAST TUE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THERE...WHILE SQUALLS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE N PORTION OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND INTO S FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING