000 AGXX40 KNHC 020748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA'S WEATHER WITH RATHER LIGHT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED. WINDS N OF THE RIDGE ARE REPORTED BY BUOY TO BE SE-S 10-15 KT W OF 94W AND S-SW 5-10 KT E OF 94W. S OF THE RIDGE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY E WINDS OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION WHERE E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT...WITH A SMALL SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS EXISTS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. BUOYS FROM ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE W OF 94W...AND 1- 2 FT E OF 94W WITH SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA UNDER SLIGHTER STRONGER E FLOW FUNNELING IN FROM ATLC WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THU AS IS SHIFTS N TO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION NOW PASSING OVER WESTERN TIP OF CUBA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN BAY OF TONIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA TUE. WITH IT THERE MAY SHORT SURGES OF E NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE NE FLOW AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA SSW TO INLAND NW HONDURAS WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF W ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. NE-E TRADES OF 20-25 KT AS NOTED IN A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT...AND BY NOAA BUOY NEAR 15N75W WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ON THU...BUT CONTINUE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. SEAS IN THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTER...AND SHOULD MAX OUT TO 10 OR 11 FT THROUGH THU PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OBSERVED TO HAVE A RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE AS SEEN ON SHORT WAVE IR IMAGERY AND ON THE MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALONG 59W/60W MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER THIS MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER ON MON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...EXITING THE AREA LATE ON WED. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PAST 2200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 16N. LATEST MODEL WIND 10M WIND FIELD GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE OF E 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXCEPT FOR THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS WHERE PULSES OF 15-20 KT MAY BE SEEN UNDER SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. 0000 UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 4-5 FT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 11N DUE TO A NE SWELL DERIVED FROM THE AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES MENTIONED EARLIER. MUCH LOWER SEAS...IN THE TYPICAL PROTECTED AREA S OF CUBA SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE FROM CUBA TO ABOUT 20N. SW ATLC W OF 55W... CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 35N40W EXTENDS A RIDGE WSW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS PERSISTENT FEATURE IS FORECAST BY NWP MODELS TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE...THEN SLOWLY LIFT N WED AND THU. THE RIDGE SEPARATES S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO ITS N FROM E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO ITS S ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 23N E OF 77W AND NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NOTED IN A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2346 UTC LAST NIGHT. BUOYS AND FEW SHIPS REPORT SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT N OF THE RIDGE E OF 75W AND 2-3 FT W OF 75W. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE