000
AGXX40 KNHC 011614
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. SLY RETURN FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY 15 KT OVER THE 
NW WATERS. THE LIGHT SLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECTING 
THE NEAR SUNSET BACKING WIND SHIFT TO THE N AND NE AT 15 TO 20 
KT ALONG THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE EACH DAY. AN UPPER 
CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SE CUBA 
WELL TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE 
W CARIBBEAN AT 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF 
THIS WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND 
SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
RACING W AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE 
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE MON AND THROUGH THE S AND SW WATERS 
TUE AND WED.    

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH ELY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT. THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA IS 
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT AN 
UPPER CYCLONE OVER W CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WELL E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WSW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OD THE WEEKEND. SO ITS POSSIBLE CONVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE WELL TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS AS WELL ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS AT 15 TO 18N. A SECOND WAVE WILL RACE W THROUGH THE E 
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET TODAY...WITH FORECAST POSITIONS 
OF 70W MIDDAY SUN...80W MIDDAY MON AND CLEAR OF THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS LATE TUE. A THIRD WAVE ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 20 
KT SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W EARLY TUE AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN 
EARLY WED. 
 
SW ATLC W OF 55W...
A RIDGE DISSECTS THE ATLC WATERS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL AND 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING 
ABOUT 29N WED. GENERALLY EXPECTING S TO SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT 
OVER THE NW WATERS...AND SE TO S OVER THE NE WATERS. E TO SE 
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE AREA FROM 27N TO 23N. S OF 
23N...EXPECTING E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...BUT WINDS SHOULD RELAX 
TO E 15 KT SUN AND MON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KT SE 
PORTION TUE AND WED.   

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON