000 AGXX40 KNHC 010612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES CENTER OF 1019 MB LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N86W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO NE MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING RATHER LIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO BE VARIABLE 5-10 KT E OF 89W...AND S-SW 10-15 KT W OF 88W EXCEPT SE-S 15 KT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. S OF THE RIDGE...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION WHERE BOTH THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOY 42015 NEAR 22N94W ARE SHOWING E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT...WITH A SMALL SWATH OF NE 20 KT ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. BUOYS FROM ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE W OF 94W...AND 2 FT E OF 94W WITH SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO COUNTERFLOW UNDER NE 15 KT WINDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION OVER EASTERN CUBA IS MOVING W NEAR 23 KT. THE WAVE SHOULD BRUSH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON BEFORE EXITING THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA S TO ACROSS JAMAICA INTO PANAMA WITH A CURRENT MOVEMENT TO THE W AT ABOUT 23 KT. AS A RESULT...NE-E TRADES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS GRADIENT THERE HOLDS FIRM AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OBSERVED TO HAVE A RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE AS SEEN ON SHORT WAVE IR IMAGERY AND ON THE MIM-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY IS E OF THE AREA ALONG 50W/51W MOVING W ABOUT 25 KT. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT VARYING LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK... THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. WITH ITS PASSAGE...NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WILL HOLD AS IT CONTRIBUTES TO THE ALREADY PRESENT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N. NE WINDS MAY REACH 30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED OCCURRENCES. WINDS WILL BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO TUE E THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT PULSES OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED UNDER SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. 0000 UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS MAXIMUM SEAS OF 12-13 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN LOWERS THEM TO 10 FT BY SUN NIGHT INTO WED. WAVE GUIDANCE FROM THE UKMET AND FNMOC MODELS SHOWS SEAS SUBSIDING FURTHER TO 7-8 FT TUE AND WED. SW ATLC W OF 55W... CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 35N49W HAS ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS PERSISTENT FEATURE IS STILL FORECAST BY NWP MODELS TO REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SUN MORNING ...THEN SLOWLY MOVE N THROUGH WED. THE RIDGE SEPARATES S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO ITS N FROM E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO ITS S ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 23N AND NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NOTED IN A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2230 UTC LAST NIGHT. BUOYS AND FEW SHIPS REPORT SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT N OF THE RIDGE E OF 75W AND 2-3 FT W OF 75W. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE