000
AGXX40 KNHC 311651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. SLY RETURN FLOW PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE W WATERS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY WINDS OVER THE 
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP OFF TO LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE. EXPECTING THE NEAR SUNSET BACKING WIND SHIFT TO 
THE N AND NE AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH 
DAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W HAS BEEN 
MOVING W A LITTLE SLOWER...PERHAPS 15 KT. ASSUMING THIS MOTION 
CONTINUES...THE WAVE WILL REACH THE FL STRAITS EARLY SAT MORNING 
AND MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SUN AND THROUGH THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON.     

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG ELY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NE 
TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT INDICATED IN WINDWARD PASSAGE PER 
QSCAT AND SFC OBS. HOWEVER A RECENT CALL FROM A SHIP IN PASSAGE 
SUGGESTS WINDS MAY BE DIMINISHING FASTER THAN GUIDANCE. THE 
REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W HAS ONLY MOVED W AT 15 KT SINCE 
YESTERDAY...THIS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN SUGGESTED MOTION OF 
20 KT THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. SO RECALCULATE FUTURE PSN TO ALONG 
78W AT SUNRISE SAT AND 84W SUNRISE SUN. THE NEXT WAVE ALONG 45W 
ATTM HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF NEAR 25 KT. THIS MOTION FASTER 
THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED AND SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE TO ALONG 55W 
LATE TONIGHT...INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT...AND THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT THE FRESH 
E TRADES TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE PERIOD IN CARIBBEAN. THE BELT 
OF 15 TO 20 KT ELY WINDS IN THE TROPICAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT N OF 19N BY SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED. MOSTLY E 10 TO 
15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS E OF ANTILLES. 
 
SW ATLC W OF 55W...
A RIDGE DISSECTS THE WATERS FROM JUST S OF BERMUDA ACROSS THE NW 
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FL AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING S TO SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER 
THE NW WATERS...AND SE TO S OVER THE NE WATERS. E TO SE WINDS AT 
10 TO 15 KT OVER THE AREA FROM 27N TO 23N. S OF 23N...EXPECTING 
E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...BUT WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO E 15 KT SAT 
AND SUN THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KT SE PORTION MON AND 
TUE.   

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON