000 AGXX40 KNHC 310733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N97W WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT N AND S OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 92W WHERE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF THE RIDGE E OF 87W...AND SW 10-15 KT BETWEEN 92W. S OF THE RIDGE E OF 92W WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0040 UTC LAST NIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W WHERE BOTH THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SE-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXCEPT IN THE SW PORTION WHERE THE 0040 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SE WINDS OF 20 KT W OF 94W...AND NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ALONG AND NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST AS TYPICAL OCCURS DURING THE EVENINGS. AS FOR SEAS... BUOYS SHOW THEM IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT W OF ABOUT 92W AND 1-3 FT E OF 92W. THE ONLY NEW FEATURE THAT MAY AFFECT WINDS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE HAS TRACKED A LITTLE MORE IN A WNW DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. WITH THIS CURRENT TRACK...THE WAVE COULD IMPACT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEGINNING FRI NIGHT THEN BRUSH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AND BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON BEFORE MOVING W OF THE GULF. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME. THE MAIN FEATURE NOTED THIS MORNING IS A RATHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP ROUGHLY ALONG 70W MOVING W ABOUT 19 KT. AS A RESULT...NE-E TRADES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AS REVEALED IN A 2300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT ...THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS GRADIENT THERE HOLDS FIRM AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK IN A GENERAL W TO WNW TRACK MOVING W OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXHIBITING A RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE AS SEEN ON SHORT WAVE IR IMAGERY IS NEAR 42W MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THIS MOTION...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD NOT VARY TOO MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...SHOULD BRING THE WAVE TO NEAR 55W SAT EVENING...AND INTO E CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING. THE WAVE WILL MAINLY HELP TO SUPPORT THE 20-25 KT TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUE AS IT CONTRIBUTES TO THE ALREADY PRESENT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N. WINDS...HOWEVER WILL BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO TUE E THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT PULSES OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS ATLC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS MAXIMUM SEAS OF 12 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...AND BRINGS THEM DOWN TO 10 FT MON AND TUE. THESE VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER BASED ON LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF ONGOING 20-25 KT FURTHER ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES. SW ATLC W OF 55W... MAIN CONTROLLING FEATURE IS THE EVER PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W SW TO ACROSS S CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY NWP MODEL CONSENSUS TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE SEPARATES S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO ITS N FROM E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO ITS S. EXCEPTIONS ARE...HIGHER E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 23N AND NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NOTED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT. BUOYS AND FEW SHIPS REPORT SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT N OF THE RIDGE E OF 75W AND 2-3 FT W OF 75W...AND 3-5 FT S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN NE SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE