000 AGXX40 KNHC 290641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N ANCHORED ON A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N56W. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE E GULF...AND SE TO S WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER...HIGHER E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT (OCCASIONALLY SHIFTING TO THE NE JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PRIMARILY E PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS ( NEAR 00 TO 06 UTC EACH DAY). THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU INTO FRI WILL ALSO BRING E-SE 20 KT WINDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE ACROSS THE E GULF AND BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 6 FT THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN A STRONGER E-SE SURGE OF WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN OR PANAMANIAN LOW. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT COVERING MOST OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 20-25 KT WINDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N EARLY THU. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED INTO THU. SEAS UP TO 16 FT IN E SWELL ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE E SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR 80W S OF CENTRAL CUBA MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT. SOLID MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. NOAA BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WINDS OF NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE THIS EVENING. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 53/54W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WILL PASS THROUGH THE THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND 30/0000Z. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS JUST MOVING OFF THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST AND CURRENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN AND CUBA WHERE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT SMALL POCKETS 6-9 FT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HAITI. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SLACKENS...AND THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES N TO NEAR 30N/31N BY SUN. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER GR