000 AGXX40 KNHC 281848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N. THE RIDGE IS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A CENTRAL HIGH OF 1027 MB. MEANWHILE ...THE DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED E TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE E GULF...AND SE TO S WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER...HIGHER E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT (OCCASIONALLY SHIFTING TO THE NE JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PRIMARILY E PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS ( NEAR 00 TO 06 UTC EACH DAY). THIS MORNING'S SEASTATE ANALYSIS VALID AT 12 UTC REVEALED SEAS OF 2-4 FT OVER THE W GULF WITH A MAXIMUM OF 5 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE...BUT MAY BUILD UP TO 6 FT THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN A STRONGER E-SE SURGE OF WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN ISSUE HERE CONTINUES TO BE THE OCCURRENCE OF STRONG ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW AS NOTED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E 30 KT WINDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W. THIS SAME QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N E OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR 77W S OF EASTERN CUBA IS MOVING W ABOUT 24 KT. SOLID MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ENHANCED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. NOAA BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WINDS OF NEAR 25 KT. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ZONE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PENINSULA OF PARAGUANA ON THE VENEZUELAN COAST HAVE BEEN E 20-25 KT ALL MORNING WITH A GUST UP TO 33 KT AT 1200 UTC. 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 20-25 KT WINDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MUCH THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THU MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8-13 FT BUT BUILDING TO 14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW THAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 11 FT. THE OUTLIER WAS THE WAVEWATCH FROM THE FNMOC WHICH SHOWS SEAS LOWERING TO AS LOW AS 3-5 FT SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST MOVING OFF THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST AND CURRENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN AND CUBA WHERE A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PERSISTENT SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY. REPORTED WAVES ARE IN THE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT SMALL POCKETS 6-9 FT S OF 25N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 67W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SLACKENS...AND THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES N TO NEAR 30N FRI...AND TO ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N SAT AND SUN. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE