000
AGXX40 KNHC 261833
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
GULF AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
CORE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CENTRAL GULF IS
KEEPING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACTIVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. TSTMS
ARE ALSO PERSISTING OVER THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE
TSTMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF OF THE WAVE AND SHIFT NW
TOWARD TAMPICO AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLC ALONG 28N TO TEXAS. SPORADIC WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS THE WAVE/TROUGH MIGRATES WEST. A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES FORMING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL ALLOW SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH MID WEEK. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1030Z SHOWED SOLID 30 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA EVEN HINTING OF A
SMALL AREA OF 35 KT WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BETWEEN
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND COLOMBIA...AND AS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE AND N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL BY STARTING TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF
THE AREA. SEAS UP TO 13 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY
THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND WILL BUILD TO 14 FT PER ENSEMBLE WW3
OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED IN E SWELL. AN ASCAT
PASS FROM 15Z SHOWED WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO BE 20 TO 25 KT...DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL
HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS 20 KT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N
CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE... ALTHOUGH 20 KT E FLOW IS NOTED N OF
HAITI. AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IS EXPECTED
S OF 22N THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 28N/29N.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN