000 AGXX40 KNHC 240802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION TODAY THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N88W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS N OF 23N. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THIS ACTIVITY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EPAC REGION IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT LYING OVER THE N GULF STATES. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ILL DEFINED LATE TODAY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING S OF 23N WITH NE FLOW 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT...AND WITH TYPICAL EVENING NELY FLOW ALONG THE NW AND W COASTS OF THE YUCATAN AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E TO SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WWD NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. ONE IS ALONG 80W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE WAVES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 OR 14 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 50W TO 80W LATE MON INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MOVE WWD AND STRENGTHENS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SE PORTION OF THE SW ATLC JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT COVERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 70W-74W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N72W TO 26N77W. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD INTO THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING A MORE TYPICAL E TO SE TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER GR