000 AGXX40 KNHC 230819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS HAVING DISSIPATED IN RECENT HOURS. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW AND W GULF WITH E-SE FLOW 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT...AND WITH TYPICAL EVENING NELY FLOW ALONG THE NW AND W COASTS OF THE YUCATAN AROUND 15 KT PER AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS. AN WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL SINK SE INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED DEEP CNVTN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ILL DEFINED BY FRI...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N GULF TO INTERACT WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CNVTN AGAIN FRI AND SAT...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE E EACH DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS S INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATING MOST OF THE GULF...AND PERIODS OF 15 KT FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR W AND SW GULF...AND 15-20 KT DURING THE EVENINGS ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS THERE COULD BUILD 4 TO 5 FT SUN INTO MON DUE TO THIS ENHANCED FLOW. CARIBBEAN... THE SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TO BE STRETCHED AND FRACTURED ACROSS AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WITH GENERALLY THE STRONGEST WINDS AND ENERGY SHIFTING W-NW INTO THE SW N ATLC...AND THEN MORE NW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND GETTING SUCKED NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...SOME ALTERATIONS TO THIS RECENT PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEAK AND STRETCHED REMNANTS OF ONE WAVE WERE IN THE SW AND W CENTRAL CARIB AND ABOUT TO ENTER NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT WIND FLOW WAS GRADUALLY SPREADING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SW CARIB BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE...WITH EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES NOW SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVE BACK TO BACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST BENIGN WAVE WAS CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND THE ERN CARIB EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC JET AND LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE WAS RIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE AND CROSSING 60W...AND HAS BEEN ACTING TO PUSH THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT ALONG. THESE WAVES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TO DIFFERENTIATE AS THEY CROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE DOMINATE ANY SIGNALS. AS THIS WAVE TANDEM RACES ACROSS THE BASIN AT 20-25 KT...A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE E CARIB WILL SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUILD SEAS 9-11 FT ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN...AND TO 12 FT IN 25-30 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 20-25 KT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR N AS 18N ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB...AND WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA FRI AND SAT. 10-13 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW CARIB AND OFF COLOMBIA BY SUN. A BRIEF DECREASING TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE ERN CARIB LATE SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE NEXT WIND SURGE AND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION TUE. A ZONE OF SAHARAN AIR WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WIND SURGE WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIB TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THESE SQUALLS SHOULD OCCUR S OF 16N. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND FLORIDA IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NE AND WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE N TONIGHT...LIFTING THE ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE PAST 48 HOURS NE AND EWD WITH IT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WILL LIFT OUT...AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE BAHAMAS...INDUCING A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THAT AREA...AND MORE TYPICAL E TO SE TRADE WINDS. SEAS S OF 25N HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FADE TO 8 FT AND LESS. THE STRONG SLY FLOW E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH DRAGS THIS LLVL FEATURE NEWD...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THUS BE SLOW TO FALL THERE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SELY WIND SWELL AT 8-9 SECONDS GENERATED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS STRONG SELY FLOW INTO THE BAHAMAS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE E COASTS FROM FLORIDA TO THE OUTER BANKS...AND WILL PEAK AT 2-4 FT AT 9-10 SECONDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...GENERATING MODERATE SURF ALONG THE COASTLINES...AND ACTIVE RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. OTHERWISE...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WIND AND SEAS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE AND E TO SE TRADES BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MON INTO TUE WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WIND SURGE AND ENSUING TROPICAL WAVE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING