000 AGXX40 KNHC 220831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE MIAMI FL 430 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS HAVING DISSIPATED IN RECENT HOURS. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW AND W GULF WITH SE-S RETURN FLOW NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KT ALONG THE TX AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS...AND 15+ KT FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF. AS THIS LOW LIFTS OUT THE NE A WEAK HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF THE YIELD MILD WINDS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE NRN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A REORGANIZING BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO YIELD ACTIVE AFTERNOON TSTMS EACH DAY ALONG THE COASTS. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THEN WRN CARIB ARE HAVING THE NRN PORTION FRACTURED IN THE SELY LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS...AND SOME OF THIS SHEARED MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH 72 HOURS...YIELDING AN ELONGATED ZONE OF SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. CARIBBEAN... THE SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND NEXT FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE STRETCHED AND FRACTURED ACROSS AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WITH GENERALLY THE STRONGEST WINDS AND ENERGY SHIFTING W-NW INTO THE SW N ATLC...AND THEN MORE NW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THEN GETTING SUCKED NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. THE WEAK AND STRETCHED REMNANTS OF ONE WAVE HAVE MOVED INTO NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WINDS...ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE ACROSS HAITI GENERALLY AFFECTING THE NRN HALF OF THE CENTRAL CARIB. DIFFLUENT LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIB WAS YIELDING MODERATE WINDS AROUND 15 KT W OF 75W PER AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS...WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF 20 KT WINDS MOSTLY IN CNVTN. A LLVL WIND SURGE BEHIND THIS WAVE OVER HAITI WAS PRODUCING MUCH STRONGER WIND FLOW ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...VERY POSITIVELY TILTED NW-SE WAS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WITH THE NRN PORTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE INITIATING ISOLATED DEEP CNVTN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NE CARIB. THIS WAVE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE OVER HAITI TO BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC THIS MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE E AND CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH THU. THE GFS INDICATES A 45-50 KT MID TROPOSPHERIC JET BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT WILL TAKE A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVES...AND MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY. A BROAD ZONE OF SAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MIX WITH THIS JET AND COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE 40-50 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WINDWARDS AND DOWNSTREAM WED AND THU. THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL AID IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE S CARIB HALF OF THE CARIB...AND IN THE TYPICAL CENTRAL CARIB WHERE THE LLVL JET TYPICALLY RESIDES. 20-25 KT WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN CARIB WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.. .WHILE 25-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT ARE A GOOD BET OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE THU INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-SE WINDS ACROSS CARIB N OF 16-17N ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO WAVES WILL CREATE LONG FETCHES AND ALLOW FOR GOOD WAVE GROWTH N OF 16N WED THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY REACHING 11-12 FT. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE UPPER TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE SE U.S. COASTS IS HELPING TO CREATE A LOW TO MID LEVEL SELY FLOW N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WHICH IS ACTING TO FRACTURE THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE MOST RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND THERE ASSOCIATED WIND SURGES...INTO THE SE BAHAMAS AND THEN N-NW. THIS HAS CREATED A BROAD SELY FETCH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THAT HAS PUMPED UP SEAS 8-10 FT ALONG THE E COASTS OF THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING SE TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. A MID LLVL WIND MAXIMUM OF 35-40 KT RACED ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INDUCED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN AND VERY SQUALLY WEATHER. BUOY 41046 OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT AND GREATER AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT...WITH SEAS JUMPING 2 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TO 11.5 FT. THIS TRAIN OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN VERY MUCH THIS SAME TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SPREAD THESE 8-10 FT SEAS N OF 30N BY WED EVENING. VERY SQUALLY AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER...20-30 KT WINDS...AND HIGH AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE NW BAHAMAS OUT 200-300 NM THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE A MORE TYPICAL E TO SE TRADE WIND FLOW. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING