000 AGXX40 KNHC 180825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE MIAMI FL 425 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST...AND IS A PORTION OF THE EXTENSION OF THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND WEAKLY NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. BUOYS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRES...WITH SEAS ONLY 1 TO 3 FT OVERALL. A TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED ALONG ABOUT 93W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IS ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THIS TROPICAL WAVE...ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10 TO 15 KT. ALSO...W TO W-SW FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF WAS BLOWING 10-15 KT WITH 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE N GULF COAST. A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW IT TO BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY SUN INTO MON. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 15 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE EVENINGS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN COAST...AS IS THE TYPICAL DAILY CYCLE. CARIBBEAN... AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AS THE BACK EDGE OF SAL AND A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EPAC GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS STRONG FLOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARDS AND TROPICAL ATLC. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ...IN EXCESS OF 12 FT...ACROSS THE SW CARIB THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. THIS APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS THE FIRST OF TWO TRAVERSING THE ATLC. A 15-20 KT NELY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR ERN CARIB ATTM AHEAD OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ITCZ HAS LIFTED NW INTO THE SE CARIB TO 13N...WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS SW TO NE TILTED WAVE. A TUTT AXIS ACROSS THE NE CARIB TODAY WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE ERN CARIB AND SW N ATLC. SOME SQUALLS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A WIND MAXIMUM ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIB...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS...POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT...TO MOVE JUST OUTSIDE THE NE CARIB AND ANEGADA PASSAGE AND ALONG 20N NEXT 24 HOURS...BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT OR GREATER...AND 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 6-8 FT INSIDE THE NE CARIB. A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 42W IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TAKE A MORE W-NW TRAJECTORY TO AFFECT THE NE CARIB AND ISLANDS. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. A TRIO OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FURTHER SE. THE FIRST MENTIONED ALREADY IS MOVING INTO THE ERN CARIB. THE SECOND ALONG 42W...AND A THIRD SMALLER WAVE WAS APPROACHING 29/30W. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS FIRST WAVE WILL TAKE A W-NW MOTION AND CROSS THE NE CARIB TODAY AND SUN...REACH 70W SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON. A BROAD WIND SURGE ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS TO THE BAHAMAS AND ATLC WATERS TO THEIR E BY MON...BUILDING 7 TO 8 FT OR HIGHER. SQUALLS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE INTO THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY W AND NW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BRING INCREASING E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THESE ATLC WATERS W OF 70W BY EARLY DURING THE COMING WEEK...AND BUILDING SEAS IN SELY WIND SWELL. THE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS OF RECENT IS ABOUT TO END. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING