000 AGXX40 KNHC 111912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE SE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GULF...HELPING TO SUSTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NE GULF ALONG 28/29N. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AND HIGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SWATH OF E TO E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...GENERATING WIND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN THE SW GULF...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING NW INTO THE E COAST OF MEXICO. A RATHER BROAD AREA OF 15-20 KT SE WINDS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE SW GULF W OF 95W THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE S GULF. HOWEVER...NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL BE A COMMON OCCURRENCE DURING THE EVENINGS NEAR THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ENHANCED BY NEARBY TERRAIN VARIATIONS. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 68W. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY REACH 30 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL ALSO BE COMMON FROM 11N-18N W OF 70W THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS 14 TO 15 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE W TO NW AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACCOMPANYING THE N HALF OF THE WAVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 36/37W...WILL WAVE ACCELERATED TO AROUND 25 KT...AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND A STRONG SURGE OF SAHARAN AIR. ATLC... THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT... PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...HAS LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ALONG 30N AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY EARLY TUE...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WILL MAINTAIN NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THESE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. A WEAK AND BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 51W AND N OF 15N IS THE FIRST OF THESE PERTURBATIONS...AND WILL SHIFT W INTO THE SW ATLC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 36/37WW WAS MOVING W 15-20 KT. A STRONG LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WIND SURGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OFF OF WRN AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FRESHEN THE WIND FLOW AND GENERATE BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC N OF 13/14N THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS MAY ALSO SEVER THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE FROM THE SRN PORTION EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT HAZE IN SAHARAN AIR WILL DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THIS WIND SURGE. A BROAD SWATH OF 8-9 FT SEAS AND WINDS 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY E OF 45W BY WED. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.