000 AGXX40 KNHC 110642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE SE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GULF...HELPING TO SUSTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NE GULF ALONG 28N. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N86W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AND HIGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...SUPPORTING WIND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SW GULF...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ENHANCED BY TERRAIN-INDUCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY THE 11/0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 22N THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SE WINDS OF 20 KT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE S GULF. HOWEVER...NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL BE A COMMON OCCURRENCE DURING THE EVENINGS NEAR THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ENHANCED BY NEARBY TERRAIN VARIATIONS. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 66W. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY REACH 30 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL ALSO BE COMMON FROM 11N-18N W OF 70W THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 15 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 10/2315 UTC CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ALSO...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W/67W CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD...AND WILL MOVE W AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACCOMPANYING THE N HALF OF THE WAVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 34W S OF 17N...WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. ATLC... THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT... PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...HAS LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 27N78W TO 31N72W. THIS FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT...AND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL. BY EARLY TUE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WILL MAINTAIN NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL LOCALLY INCREASE THESE WINDS...AS WILL THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 34W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL INTENSIFY THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH TRADES INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC MON INTO WED...WHERE NE TO E WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL BUILD MAXIMUM SEAS TO 8 FT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER COHEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.