000
AGXX40 KNHC 081655
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
SHARP LONG AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG 90W DIGS S ACROSS N GULF 
STATES ACTIVATING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N GULF COASTAL 
WATERS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N E OF 93W. 
LARGE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF TROUGH CENTERED IN NW MEXICO BRINGS VERY 
DRY STABLE AIRMASS INTO GULF W OF 90W.  DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH... 
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 30N66W FEELING THE SQUEEZE BY SHARP 
TROUGH GIVES WAY AND MOVES E...BUT THEN HOLDS BY FRI AND 
REBUILDS BACK W.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CUT OFF CYCLONE DEVELOP 
OVER GULF SAT THEN DRIFT W LETTING RIDGE TAKE OVER GULF AGAIN.  
SW N ATLC...TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN NEVER LOSE EFFECTS OF 
RIDGE.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER OVER CENTRAL ATLC HAS RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 28N TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND W INTO GULF OF MEXICO.  AS RIDGE DRIFTS E 
AND N...SERIES OF LOW PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE 
JUST N OF 31N DISPLACE FURTHER N DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING 
SEAS N OF 28N.  RIDGE RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE LATE IN FORECAST 
PERIOD AND COMBINE WITH TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CARIBBEAN AND 
WITH 1009 LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA TO BRING STRONG BREEZE AND NEAR 
GALE WINDS TO S HALF OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

WITH WEAKENING RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO PRES GRADIENT FLATTENS 
AND SEAS TURN SLIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS 
BAY OF CAMPECHE THU.   

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.